Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
